Trucking in North America: Trends to Watch in 2026
Ground transportation in North America will continue to evolve this coming year, particularly along the U.S.-Mexico border. The most significant factors shaping the industry include ongoing regulatory changes, increased enforcement focus, capacity challenges, manufacturing growth, and ongoing infrastructure investments. For shippers, carriers, and logistics partners, 2026 will likely see more structural shifts than market-cycle impacts.
As we move into the new year, strong carrier relationships will be key, creating more opportunities compared to any potential savings in the spot market. Cross-border freight, in particular, will continue to see growth with specific regions standing out, including Laredo and South Texas, Northern Mexico, Southern California and Otay Mesa, and Central Mexico.
Let’s dive into what manufacturers should expect and watch for in 2026 — from rates, capacity, and volume to integration, compliance, and infrastructure.
Freight Rates Will See Gradual Increases
After a downturn throughout 2024 and early 2025, freight market rates are finally finding firmer footing. This past year, we saw a slight increase in spot market rates, while contract rates rose only slightly. This trend will likely continue, with only single-digit marginal increases expected. Those increases will be more prominent in cross-border freight and along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Trends to watch this year will center on market recalibration as freight demand stabilizes (though uneven), capacity tightens in certain areas, operating costs continue to rise, and the industry faces ongoing driver shortages. Fleets across North America will continue to focus on efficiency by adopting technology that enhances visibility and implementing regionalized route-planning strategies.
Increasing costs and industry pressures over the past few years have made fleets leaner and more disciplined. The industry also saw many smaller operators exit during the downturn, though it remains highly fragmented, riddled with intense competition, and low profit margins. These factors limit overall market growth and will create tight capacity in certain areas.
Tight Capacity Where It Matters Most
Trucking capacity will likely tighten, but not across the board. Some regions will remain loose, while other areas will tighten, especially along cross-border corridors such as Laredo, El Paso, and Nogales. Strategic planning and utilization will be critical in the year ahead, emphasizing the importance of trusted logistics partners. The most significant factors impacting capacity include the ongoing push for manufacturing in Mexico, limited fleet growth as carriers focus more on asset management than replacement, the enforcement of trucking standards, and driver availability constraints.
Infrastructure investments — such as the Otay Mesa East Port of Entry, due to open this year — will relieve some of the congestion and capacity challenges, once completed, and continue to improve conditions over time. Ahead of those completed projects, shippers should plan for high utilization and less margin for error when moving freight through key border crossings.
Re-Evaluating Expectations and Classifications
A crucial aspect of strategic planning is classifying freight and fully understanding the regulations governing it. In addition to changes in freight classifications, we are seeing more stringent enforcement of existing regulations, particularly those related to commercial trucking, safety standards, and documentation accuracy.
This past year, the NMFC started moving toward density-based classification, Mexico’s Ministry of Economy began requiring an Automatic Export Notice for specific goods at Mexican customs, and the FMCSA (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration) has increased enforcement of driver English proficiency and other commercial trucking standards — all of which are impacting industry expectations. The FMCSA is expected to ramp up compliance monitoring, which could increase operational costs for carriers that need to invest in new technologies and training.
In 2026, more contracts will reflect real-world conditions: border dwell times, detention risks, and compliance costs will be priced in rather than absorbed. It’s a good time for shippers to take a closer look at how they classify freight, manage accessorials, and choose partners who truly understand the realities of the trucking industry and cross-border operations. Transparency, alignment, predictable service, and bilingual capabilities matter more now than ever.
Driver Availability Is a Persistent Constraint
As the FMCSA doubles down on enforcement of commercial trucking standards and English proficiency requirements, the industry is seeing a shortage of qualified drivers, especially for cross-border operations. These limitations are adding to the current driver shortage and capacity constraints in those regions. While some groups are challenging these policies, compliance scrutiny will likely increase, not ease.
South of the border, Mexico faces its own driver shortages, driven by safety concerns, retention challenges, and market pressure for more competitive wages. These factors will continue to play a role unless companies address them through competitive compensation and professional development, making retention programs and recruitment strategies a crucial focus area. For shippers, working with partners that have established networks in Mexico and who proactively manage labor risk can make the difference between smooth execution and unexpected delays.
More Accountability in Regulations & Compliance
Enhanced scrutiny is also prevalent at the border, where CBP (U.S. Customs and Border Protection) is increasing enforcement of documentation accuracy, valuation, and country-of-origin claims. Previously overlooked mistakes are now leading to holds, penalties, and extended reviews that can affect transit times. Programs like CTPAT are becoming strategic tools rather than just certifications. Those that are CTPAT-certified benefit from reduced inspection rates, faster processing, and less risk of costly border delays.
On the Mexico side, there have also been evolving requirements around digital documentation, safety standards, and environmental compliance. While the deadline was extended to March 2026, an example is the upcoming implementation of the Manifestación de Valor Electrónica (Electronic Value Declaration) by the Mexican Tax Administration Service (SAT). Companies that prioritize strong oversight of compliance frameworks will minimize delay risk and tariff exposure.
Integrating Customs Brokerage
The past year has brought an unprecedented number of tariff announcements and regulatory changes, emphasizing the growing importance of integrating customs brokerage with supply chain processes. Moving forward, we expect to see further enhancements to customs processes to smooth cross-border trade, particularly along the U.S.-Mexico border.
In 2026, integrating technology into customs brokerage, such as automated customs declarations and improved tracking systems, will become crucial to streamlining operations and reducing delays. Compliance with regulations will also require logistics providers to remain agile and informed, thereby focusing on how they can leverage technology to navigate customs requirements.
One of the most significant shifts on the horizon will be the integration of customs brokerage directly into transportation processes, connecting clearance status, shipment visibility, carrier tendering, and billing in real time into transportation management systems. Overall, customs brokerage integration will help reduce human errors, shorten cycle times, and give shippers better control over costs and risk.
Mexico Continues to Lead Volume Growth
Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, freight volumes will likely increase steadily in 2026, with Mexico remaining one of the most stable growth areas in North American logistics. Its manufacturing base, especially in automotive, electronics, and industrial goods, is driving significant growth in cross-border freight as nearshoring is pushing manufacturing into northern and central Mexico.
Cross-border freight should be a stabilizing force for the U.S. trucking market in 2026, helping to offset softer volumes in other global trade lanes. Mexico’s growing manufacturing and e-commerce markets will also likely drive an increase in domestic and northbound freight activity. As logistics providers become more integral to North American supply chains, U.S. companies will need to establish stronger partnerships with Mexican counterparts, emphasizing the need for seamless communication and collaboration. This growth also reinforces the need to enhance infrastructure and customs processes to accommodate the increased volume.
Infrastructure Investments Are Paying Off
Infrastructure investments and federal funding on both sides of the border have become one of the most critical factors in supporting this volume growth — and are starting to pay off. In recent years, public and private investment has expanded ports of entry, enabled industrial park development, and improved roadways throughout North America. Laredo remains the cornerstone of cross-border trade, while regions like Otay Mesa are enhancing connections between Nuevo León and U.S. highways.
Some of the most impactful improvements are still ahead, including the opening of the new Gordie Howe International Bridge between Windsor and Detroit, the expansion of the World Trade Bridge in Laredo, and the full completion in June 2026 of Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec as an alternative to the Panama Canal. These projects and more will continue to add capacity to the market, ease border congestion, improve reliability, and help move freight more efficiently across the border.
Looking Ahead in 2026
Overall, we are gearing up for transformative changes in 2026. From rising demand and regulatory changes to technological advancement and industry scrutiny, these factors will shape the future of logistics across North America. Steady but modest growth, especially along the U.S.-Mexico border, is expected, despite challenges with rate pressures, increased enforcement of trucking standards, and ongoing driver shortages.
This year will be defined more by structural transformation than by short-term cycles and chaos, centered on digital integration, customs enforcement, and targeted infrastructure investment. Companies that integrate customs brokerage into their systems, foster partnerships with experienced cross-border logistics providers, and focus on strategic capacity planning will undoubtedly set themselves apart.
ProTrans is a specialized logistics partner supporting complex manufacturing supply chains. With deep expertise in cross-border trade, freight consolidation, global forwarding, and time-critical services, we deliver data-driven solutions that reduce costs, improve visibility, and increase resilience. Whether you’re optimizing cross-border flows, strengthening customs integration, or looking for improved capacity planning, our team is ready to help. Contact us today to learn how we can elevate your operations.