Preparing for Economic Shifts in 2026

Economic uncertainty is a common theme for manufacturers worldwide. As we look ahead, we expect a series of overlapping shifts to have a greater impact on the global supply chain than a single factor. A mix of influences, from lingering inflation and continued political tension to slower growth and supply chain reconfiguration, is all converging at once.

For companies operating in the United States and Mexico, these conditions hit especially close to home, with only moderate growth expected in key cross-border regions. As regionalized supply chains gain importance in North America, however, they also become more complex. To succeed, manufacturers should remain flexible and prepare for multiple outcomes.

Economic Trends Shaping Supply Chains in 2026

The best way to describe what we can expect this year is “uneven.” Some regions will grow steadily, affecting capacity, while others will struggle. Demand will likely vary widely by both industry and geography. And sustainability efforts will stay an essential factor, despite U.S. efforts under the Trump administration to reduce environmental oversight.

Throughout North America, manufacturing is expected to be relatively resilient, with a modest uptick in some areas driven by nearshoring trends, the strength of cross-border trade, and continuing infrastructure investments in the U.S. and Mexico. Global demand, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, will remain a bit softer, affecting export-driven supply chains and potentially rebalancing trade following adjustments from this past year due to changes in the shipping alliances.

Efficiency and optimization are key priorities for most manufacturers as inflation continues to linger, along with ongoing tariff changes and rising labor, energy, and transportation expenses. These costs are now part of a “new normal,” forcing organizations to reevaluate their sourcing strategies, productivity investments, and efforts to better protect margins.

At the same time, the need for efficiency and cost savings is accelerating the adoption of technology at every level of the supply chain. Advanced planning systems, real-time visibility tools, and AI-powered forecasting are no longer experimental—they are expected. Companies that lack digital insight into their supply chains will find it increasingly difficult to meet customer requirements and respond to market changes.

A Focus on Economic Forecasting and Planning

While economic forecasting used to be an annual exercise at the start of the new year, it has become more of a continuous process, often updated quarterly or even monthly. The ability to capture and analyze data to predict demand changes and industry conditions helps manufacturers optimize production, manage resources efficiently, control costs, and reduce risks.

Growing access to real-time data and artificial intelligence has shifted how companies forecast. Traditional economic indicators are now combined with operational metrics, such as shipping and freight data, border wait times, supplier performance, and inventory levels. This continuous update of forecasts enables manufacturers to respond more effectively to demand shifts and supply chain disruptions with flexible supply chain models.

Effective forecasting and planning have also shifted to a more cross-functional approach across multiple departments, including finance, operations, supply chain planning, and procurement. This approach is helping organizations to more closely align market demand with financial and operational goals.

Planning for Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios

One of the most effective ways companies are using to create flexible models and better prepare for economic shifts is through scenario-based planning. Instead of relying on a single forecast, manufacturers are building multiple scenarios that include best-case and worst-case scenarios, with a baseline in between.

This approach allows manufacturers to plan for a wide range of economic outcomes. In the best-case scenario, the global economy stabilizes, transportation capacity remains available, and digital tools improve visibility. In North America, manufacturing continues to recover steadily, and manufacturers in emerging markets experience unprecedented growth.

Conversely, a worst-case scenario could involve escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, renewed inflation, a sharp increase in energy prices, or a major environmental disaster. Demand could drop in key end markets, and operating costs could spike uncontrollably.

Preparing for both scenarios requires balance. Too much efficiency can leave supply chains fragile, while too much redundancy can drive up costs. The goal isn’t perfection—it’s resilience.

Recommendations for Long-Term Planning

Economic forecasting as the foundation for long-term strategy is no longer an option. Manufacturers that are thinking ahead and taking a more proactive approach to forecasting are planning infrastructure investments now, such as digital tools that will improve end-to-end visibility. They are building agility into their organizational structure to enable faster decision-making and are analyzing their networks to identify opportunities to increase efficiency.

For companies operating in both the U.S. and Mexico, long-term planning also means strengthening collaboration to better align teams, partners, and processes. Organizations are integrating customs processes with transportation, adopting digital technologies to improve freight management, and partnering with experienced logistics providers to streamline their cross-border operations.

More importantly, manufacturers are modifying their processes to enhance internal capabilities and leverage the advantages of data analytics, forecasting, and scenario planning. Through contingency planning, organizations are also proactively defining specific triggers for when an action is needed, and what that action is when conditions change or disruptions occur. Additionally, the focus on long-term planning is impacting investment decisions, including strategies for employee development to improve problem-solving and adaptability.

Looking at the Year Ahead

As 2026 unfolds, economic uncertainty will remain a constant reality. For automotive and industrial manufacturers—especially those dealing with the complexities of U.S.–Mexico operations—this uncertainty can also be a catalyst for meaningful improvement. By strengthening forecasting abilities and adopting a proactive planning approach, manufacturers can better manage risk, adapt to change, and uncover new opportunities.

Now is the time to take practical steps. Begin by evaluating your current forecasting methods, invest in enhancing your digital capabilities, and empowering your teams to act quickly when faced with change. Build adaptability into your processes and encourage a proactive mindset at every level. Start setting up these capabilities today to ensure your organization is ready for whatever 2026 brings.

ProTrans and our international division, TOC Logistics, specialize in strategic logistics partnerships that help manufacturers better prepare market conditions, streamline their operations, and maintain seamless connectivity across every shipment. With nearly 30 facilities throughout North America and in-depth cross-border expertise, contact ProTrans today to get started on optimizing your network and building resilience.