Planning for the New Normal: Supply Chain Takeaways from 2025

As 2025 comes to a close, we see a year defined by unpredictability. While there weren’t as many extreme swings as we have seen in recent years, underlying pressures and supply chain uncertainties have become increasingly persistent and unrelenting.

Global trade lanes shifted, transportation costs stayed high, capacity remained tight, and ongoing tariff announcements added to border complexity. For manufacturers trying to protect their margins and maintain production schedules, logistics became more about retaining control than chasing savings.

In this blog, we take a look at the key developments of 2025 and what to plan for in the year ahead. The manufacturers that treat this past year as a learning year, looking at which networks have stabilized and which are still exposed, will be better equipped to protect their supply chains as we head into 2026.

Trucking Is Still the Backbone of Freight

Ground transportation remains the foundation of automotive and industrial supply chains, particularly for inbound manufacturing, supplier-to-supplier flows, and outbound finished goods. In 2025, the market appeared stable on the surface, but anyone managing plant freight knows that stability was fragile.

Driver shortages persist, particularly in regional and cross-border lanes. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) intensified the challenge in mid-2025 by enforcing English proficiency requirements, followed by the enforcement of commercial driving standards later in the year. At the same time, high wage, equipment, and insurance premium costs have continued to put pressure on truckload pricing across the industry.

Many companies also felt the impact of both the Trump administration's tariffs and the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) transition away from traditional commodity-based pricing toward density-based classification models. The change impacted landed-cost calculations, especially for manufacturers shipping heavy, irregular, or mixed pallets.

2026 Outlook for Trucking

Late shipments create more than a logistics headache—they can affect production schedules, overtime requirements, and overall plant performance. Manufacturers who clean up freight classifications, secure committed capacity, and build strong carrier relationships will be better off than those chasing savings in the spot market. In 2026, capacity will be the key differentiator over price. Key moves to make:

• Audit LTL density, packaging, and classification accuracy across your suppliers.

• Secure committed capacity for core plant lanes.

• Be proactive in developing expedite strategies rather than reacting under pressure.

Cross-Border Complexity Grew While Nearshoring Grew

As manufacturers continue to pursue nearshoring strategies, particularly in the U.S.-Mexico corridor, new suppliers have come online, volumes have increased, and cross-border flows have intensified. This was especially evident across Bajío and northern Mexico, as well as major border gateways, like Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa. But with growth comes friction, amplified by ongoing tariff announcements and policy changes.

New customs requirements, such as the Electronic Declaration of Value (VUCEM) for imports and revisions to HTS and NMFC classifications, along with tariff announcements and occasional protests at major crossings, have complicated cross-border operations. Shipments that once cleared routinely began facing delays due to valuation discrepancies, classification mismatches, or incomplete paperwork. These complications stress the importance of proper transportation planning and customs compliance.

In 2026, cross-border trade will continue to grow, but regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to ease. Manufacturers will increasingly be held accountable for supplier compliance, even several tiers removed.

2026 Action Items for Cross-Border Trade:

• Align HTS classification and country-of-origin data across suppliers.

• Integrate customs brokerage with transportation planning.

• Treat border logistics as strategic, not transactional.

Manufacturers should also stay on top of developments regarding the renegotiation of the USMCA agreement, expected in 2026. Potential changes could affect origin rules or compliance standards, further impacting cross-border trucking patterns.

Air Freight Became a Strategic Safety Net

While typically the most expensive mode of transportation, air freight solutions play a key role for manufacturers when needing to overcome disruptions, such as ocean delays, supplier failures, or launch schedule changes. It can serve as a protective measure in the face of uncertainty.

Demand for air cargo remained strong throughout 2025, particularly for electronics, EV components, and high-value manufacturing parts. Capacity remained tight, driven by e-commerce, and kept rates elevated. Cost wasn’t the main challenge for manufacturers—it was the lack of predictability.

Oftentimes, manufacturers rely on air solutions reactively when something goes wrong, increasing their unplanned logistics costs. Manufacturers that view air freight as a planned contingency rather than a last resort fare better. As 2026 approaches, air freight will remain expensive, but it will also play a critical role.

To use air more effectively, manufacturers should define their contingency strategies and evaluate their freight to segment SKUs into air-critical, air-eligible, and ground/ocean categories. Consider pre-booking capacity for launches and peak production periods as well.

Ocean Shipping Is Stable But Unpredictable

The volatility of ocean freight eased in some respects, but it also remained unpredictable. Starting with changes to ocean shipping alliances early in the year, global shipping lanes shifted, leading to capacity issues, blank sailings, and port congestion. Meanwhile, ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea continued to force carriers to reroute vessels, adding to transit times and complicating inbound planning.

Automotive and industrial manufacturers depend on predictable inbound flows. When disruptions occur or ocean schedules slip, the downstream impacts ripple across inventory levels, cash flow, and production sequencing. For some manufacturers, the longer routings increased lead times by weeks, leading to more reliance on expedited shipments.

In the coming year, ocean rates may soften, but the geopolitical risks will remain and likely keep ocean shipping unpredictable. Manufacturers should evaluate their supply chains to set realistic transit expectations, identify alternate routing options, and improve inbound visibility. It can also be beneficial to develop buffers into production plans and connect ocean visibility to plant scheduling.

Rail and Intermodal Found a Practical Role

Manufacturers looked to intermodal transportation as a cost-effective alternative to trucking. When integrated into supply chains with steady, predictable lanes, intermodal delivers value. However, it still falls short as a solution for time-sensitive shipments, in highly variable flows, or for just-in-sequence freight.

In 2025, rail service improved in key corridors, intermodal freight activity increased relative to trucking, and proposed rail consolidation signals long-term growth. It is most effective, offering cost and efficiency advantages, when applied to manufacturing replenishment lanes with consistent volumes. Still, it is not a universal replacement for trucking and requires having realistic transit expectations.

Intermodal will continue to get attention in 2026, with growth expected as manufacturers blend strategies. The increased adoption of intermodal transport will likely affect the competitive relationship between rail and trucking, as well as national freight flows and pricing patterns. Looking forward, manufacturers should identify any lanes that may be suitable for intermodal solutions, while preserving truck capacity to handle variability and demand surges.

Adapting to Global Infrastructure Growth

Ports expanded. Border crossings improved. Logistics hubs grew. But infrastructure investments only benefit the manufacturers that adjust their networks to take advantage of it. This approach requires manufacturers to be willing to test new routes, update routing guides, and rethink long-standing assumptions. Those that stay static miss opportunities for flexibility and risk reduction.

Recent port investments focused on easing congestion, particularly in Asia and Africa, including major pipelines in Southeast and South Asia. Expansions at U.S. ports, including Houston and Savannah, improved North American shipping. At the same time, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding continued to support upgrades to roads, bridges, rail corridors, ports, and airports in the U.S.

Below the border, Mexico invested in ports, rail, roads, and industrial parks to support nearshoring. The reopening of Puerto del Norte in Matamoros, the planned expansion of the World Trade Bridge, and the advancement of a $10 billion Laredo–Monterrey freight guideway showcase these efforts, all aimed at reducing congestion, shortening transit times, and improving reliability.

Airport expansions at key global hubs continued to support e-commerce demand and the future growth of both passenger and cargo traffic. Projects such as Singapore Changi’s Terminal 5 and the opening of Navi Mumbai International Airport signal increased air cargo capacity. At the same time, additional runway and terminal upgrades across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East will reshape trade connectivity in 2026.

Prepare for a More Demanding Normal in 2026

For automotive and industrial manufacturers, the lesson of 2025 is clear: transportation is no longer simply about cost control. While predictability is harder to secure, control matters more than ever. The more aligned logistics solutions are with manufacturing plans, the better, as it’s about protecting production, maintaining flexibility, and reducing risk before disruption hits.

As 2026 approaches, manufacturers should view their supply chains as dynamic systems and adopt a proactive strategy to evaluate and adjust them. It starts with cleaning up freight classifications, integrating customs and transportation strategies, securing capacity for peak production, and intentionally defining how and when to use premium modes. It also means rethinking network design to leverage new infrastructure investments rather than keeping networks static.

The coming year is unlikely to be easier with the new “normal” being more demanding. Manufacturers should plan proactively, consider and test alternatives, and build partnerships that extend beyond transactional freight moves. Those who apply the lessons learned in 2025 will be able to maintain control and resilience better and align their operations for long-term growth.

Our team operates nearly 30 facilities across North America, specializing in cross-border transportation and complemented by an established global reach. We stand ready to help you re-evaluate your networks. Reach out to ProTrans today to discuss your needs and explore adjustments you can make in the new year.